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Friday, August 17, 2018

Mapping the 2018 Minnesota primary results

Minnesota's gubernatorial primary was held last Tuesday, August 14th, and clear geographic trends appeared in the voting patterns. The Institute on Metropolitan mapped the outcome of both the Republican and Democratic contests. The maps can be found below, along with a close-in version of the Twin Cities 11-county metropolitan area. Click the images to zoom. Downloadable PDFs of the maps can also be found here.

Statewide Democratic Primary Results

11-County Metro Democratic Primary Results

In the Democratic primary, each candidate performed well in relatively well-defined areas that correspond with previous political exposure. In southern Minnesota, the site of Walz's congressional district, his ticket won resoundingly. Murphy performed best in the central cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul - especially Saint Paul, the site of her state legislative district. And Swanson dominated in northern Minnesota, where her running mate Rick Nolan is the current congressman.

 The vast majority of Democratic primary votes - over 400,000 - were cast in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, where Walz and Murphy ran neck in neck. Only about 180,000 Democratic votes were cast in the rest of the state. Among those, Walz won a large plurality and Murphy ran a distant third.

Statewide Republican Primary Results

11-County Metro Republican Primary Results

 The outcome of the Republican primary appears less geographically defined. An approximately equal share of votes were cast in the Twin Cities and the rest of the state, and in both regions, Johnson scored a slight majority while Pawlenty's vote share lagged in the low 40s. Johnson performed slightly better in the northern part of the state, but no region forms a clear base of support for either candidate. Notably, Pawlenty did perform very well in southern Minnesota cities, like Red Wing and Rochester.

Within the Twin Cities region, Pawlenty had a relatively good showing in the central cities and many first- and second-ring suburbs, while Johnson won exurban areas. The notable exception to this pattern is Johnson's strong showing in the northwestern suburbs surrounding Maple Grove and Plymouth. This area corresponds neatly with his current Hennepin County commissioner district.

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